Tesla Is the ‘Biggest Stock Market Bubble of All Time,’ George Noble Says
Tesla stock is in for a rocky ride if veteran investor George Noble’s outlook is correct.
The former director of the Fidelity International fund and founder of two hedge funds doesn’t believe the narrative among bullish investors that Tesla is more than a car company.
He says that shares of Elon Musk’s EV maker represent a tremendous stock market bubble that investors aren’t paying enough attention to. The hedge fund founder spoke to Business Insider about his bearish stance, revealing why he’s betting against it and what he thinks investors need to be looking at.
At the core of Noble’s bearish thesis is the belief that Tesla’s fundamentals are divorced from the stock’s premium valuation. He said the company is heavily exposed to competition in the space, pointing to its second consecutive year of declining sales in 2025.
“I think this is the biggest bubble possibly in stock market history,” he told Business Insider, referring to Tesla. “There’s not been a single stock, in my opinion, that has been so disconnected from fundamental valuation.”
Noble thinks Tesla stock should trade between $60 and $140 a share, given the company’s current fundamentals. At the low end, that would represent a decline of about 87% from Friday’s price.
In his view, the gap between Tesla’s narrative-driven stock price and $1.4 trillion valuation, and its fundamental performance, is significant, and that narrative hype has boosted the stock more than the success of the business.
“The product is the stock. It’s not the cars,” Noble stated. “It’s the narratives. He keeps going from one narrative to another. Years ago it was solar power, then he had The Boring Company. He’s also promised Robotaxis for 10 years.”
Part of Musk’s narrative that Noble finds particularly worrisome is the claim that Tesla is more than a car company, a view many on Wall Street have also adopted. Despite Musk’s lofty claims about robotaxis and humanoid robots, the bulk of Tesla’s revenue comes from vehicle sales, which have been declining for the past two years, Noble said.
“The automotive-related business is 87% of revenues, is very challenged, and will experience a third consecutive year of falling sales in 2026,” he noted in a recent blog post. “The auto business is worth only $20 per share based on comparative valuations.”
Noble isn’t the only investor to have expressed concerns about Tesla’s valuation. Porter Collins of Seawolf Capital, one of the traders made famous in “The Big Short,” recently told Business Insider that he views the company as one of the market’s most overvalued names.
Ross Gerber, a longtime investor and early backer of Musk’s company, spent 2025 slowly whittling down his firm’s stake. He told Business Insider in December that 2026 would be a year of reckoning for Tesla.
