Oil Prices Surge, but a Top Energy Expert Says Markets Can Withstand the Shock

The US-Iran war has caused a significant disruption in the global oil market, sending prices to $100 per barrel, but one top energy expert thinks the world economy is more resilient to shocks than in the past.

S&P Global vice chair Daniel Yergin shared his take on the current oil situation in the Financial Times on Sunday. While he examined the potential for a “nightmare scenario” in oil markets, he remains cautiously optimistic that the market can weather the latest turmoil.

“This crisis is unfolding in a world in which the global oil and gas system is more resilient and diversified than it has been for decades,” he said.

The economist looked at both Venezuela and Iran, the two nations that the US government has taken military action against since in 2026. He said that both countries were once leading oil producers, but neither has the power it did in previous decades.

The Trump administration has framed its attacks on these countries as part of its quest to dominate the global oil market, but as Yergin highlighted, while market share has diminished for both Iran and Venezuela, it has greatly expanded for the US.

“Less than two decades ago it was the world’s largest importer of oil. Now it is the largest producer,” he added. “Just ten years ago the US exported its very first cargo of LNG. Now it is the world’s largest exporter of LNG.”

Part of the resilience that Yergin sees is due to the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s strategic oil reserves. The major oil-producing countries that make up this group, such as the US, UK, Canada, and Japan, have backup oil supplies that can effectively act as a buffer against global oil shocks.

In addition, he noted that while the Strait of Hormuz is a key chokepoint for global oil flows, countries in the Persian Gulf have taken steps to minimize their dependence on the route after recognizing the risks it poses.

Oil prices have risen even higher since Yergin’s op-ed, sparking high anxiety about the global economy.

Yergin acknowledged that the disruption is severe, but even as prices climb, the global economy remains robust enough and well-structured enough to handle further volatility.

“Right now, the world is looking at the biggest disruption in oil production in history as well as a resounding shock to global gas markets,” he stated. “The key question for global energy markets now is the duration of this explosive war.”